- 1NZD/CADContrarian short · 8.2/10
- 2AUD/NZDContrarian long · 8.2/10
- 3EUR/GBPContrarian short · 7.9/10
Colour key. Green / red marks the recommended contrarian side, long or short. Orange / blue further down marks a separate reading: whether that setup is building or easing right now.
EDGE RECAP
Highest current crowd and trend dislocations
The leading pairs combine crowd concentration with price, entry-level, flow and cross-market context.
91.0% of tracked positions are long. The crowd appears to be adding into an adverse move, consistent with averaging behaviour and rising margin pressure.
87.7% of tracked positions are short. Price and entry context point to pressure against the crowd, although aggregate data cannot locate margin-call thresholds.
91.3% of tracked positions are long. Price and entry context point to pressure against the crowd, although aggregate data cannot locate margin-call thresholds.
87.0% of tracked positions are long. The crowd appears to be adding into an adverse move, consistent with averaging behaviour and rising margin pressure.
OVERVIEW MAP
28-pair positioning map
PAIR SHORTLIST
Six leading pairs
X shows imbalance extremity. Y shows how strongly positioning, price and cross-market dynamics support the reading. The upper-right area combines both. Numbered dots identify the six leading pairs.
The full 28-pair ranking is below.
- NZD/CADContrarian shortImbalance10/10Dynamics7.3/10
- AUD/NZDContrarian longImbalance9.4/10Dynamics7.6/10
- EUR/GBPContrarian shortImbalance10/10Dynamics6.7/10
- EUR/AUDContrarian shortImbalance9.3/10Dynamics6.8/10
- EUR/CADContrarian shortImbalance8.8/10Dynamics7/10
- EUR/USDContrarian shortImbalance7.3/10Dynamics7/10
CURRENCY OVERVIEWCurrency rankingThe ranking highlights currencies whose retail imbalances recur across several crosses.View 8 currencies
| # | Currency | Contrarian view | Directional tilt | Focus | Cross breadth | Cross support | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NZD | Short | -7.4 | 6.9/10 | 7/7 | 8.7/10 (100%) | 7 of 7 tracked crosses support a contrarian short NZD reading. |
| 2 | AUD | Long | +7.0 | 6.4/10 | 7/7 | 8.5/10 (100%) | 7 of 7 tracked crosses support a contrarian long AUD reading. |
| 3 | EUR | Short | -6.3 | 5.4/10 | 6/7 | 7.2/10 (100%) | 6 of 7 tracked crosses support a contrarian short EUR reading. |
| 4 | JPY | Long | +2.9 | 2.3/10 | 6/7 | 5.9/10 (100%) | 6 of 7 tracked crosses support a contrarian long JPY reading. |
| 5 | CAD | Long | +2.9 | 2.2/10 | 4/7 | 4.9/10 (100%) | 4 of 7 tracked crosses support a contrarian long CAD reading. |
| 6 | USD | Long | +1.5 | 1.1/10 | 3/7 | 4.6/10 (100%) | 3 of 7 tracked crosses support a contrarian long USD reading. |
| 7 | CHF | Short | -0.5 | 0.4/10 | 4/7 | 4.7/10 (100%) | 4 of 7 tracked crosses support a contrarian short CHF reading. |
| 8 | GBP | Long | +0.3 | 0.2/10 | 4/7 | 4.4/10 (100%) | 4 of 7 tracked crosses support a contrarian long GBP reading. |
PAIR RANKINGAll 28 retail imbalancesGreen and red mark the contrarian direction. Forced exits require joint confirmation from crowd evolution and adverse price action.View 28 pairs
| # | Pair | Spot | Contrarian view | Retail split | Imbalance | Signal strength | Focus | Crowd change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NZD/CAD extreme |
0.7859 | Contrarian short | 91.0% long · 9.0% short |
10/10 | 7.3/10 | 8.2/10 | 5 minCrowd easing1 hCrowd rising |
| 2 | AUD/NZD extreme |
1.2552 | Contrarian long | 12.3% long · 87.7% short |
9.4/10 | 7.6/10 | 8.2/10 | 5 minSteady1 hSteady |
| 3 | EUR/GBP extreme |
0.8366 | Contrarian short | 91.3% long · 8.7% short |
10/10 | 6.7/10 | 7.9/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd easing |
| 4 | EUR/AUD extreme |
1.5796 | Contrarian short | 87.0% long · 13.0% short |
9.3/10 | 6.8/10 | 7.7/10 | 5 minSteady1 hSteady |
| 5 | EUR/CAD extreme |
1.5581 | Contrarian short | 85.1% long · 14.9% short |
8.8/10 | 7/10 | 7.6/10 | 5 minSteady1 hSteady |
| 6 | EUR/USD extreme |
1.1141 | Contrarian short | 79.2% long · 20.8% short |
7.3/10 | 7/10 | 7.1/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd rising |
| 7 | GBP/NZD extreme |
2.3701 | Contrarian long | 22.2% long · 77.8% short |
7/10 | 7/10 | 7/10 | 5 minCrowd rising1 hCrowd rising |
| 8 | GBP/AUD extreme |
1.8882 | Contrarian short | 83.4% long · 16.6% short |
8.4/10 | 6.1/10 | 6.9/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd easing |
| 9 | AUD/USD active |
0.7053 | Contrarian long | 28.9% long · 71.1% short |
5.3/10 | 7.7/10 | 6.9/10 | 5 minCrowd rising1 hCrowd rising |
| 10 | NZD/USD extreme |
0.5619 | Contrarian short | 80.6% long · 19.4% short |
7.6/10 | 6.2/10 | 6.7/10 | 5 minSteady1 hSteady |
| 11 | AUD/CAD extreme |
0.9864 | Contrarian long | 22.6% long · 77.4% short |
6.9/10 | 6.1/10 | 6.4/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd easing |
| 12 | NZD/JPY extreme |
88.71 | Contrarian short | 78.3% long · 21.7% short |
7.1/10 | 5.7/10 | 6.2/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd easing |
| 13 | GBP/CAD extreme |
1.8626 | Contrarian short | 77.6% long · 22.4% short |
6.9/10 | 5.7/10 | 6.1/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd rising |
| 14 | AUD/CHF extreme |
0.5847 | Contrarian long | 23.5% long · 76.5% short |
6.6/10 | 5.6/10 | 5.9/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd easing |
| 15 | EUR/JPY active |
175.89 | Contrarian short | 69.8% long · 30.2% short |
4.9/10 | 6.5/10 | 5.9/10 | 5 minCrowd easing1 hCrowd rising |
| 16 | NZD/CHF active |
0.4658 | Contrarian short | 70.0% long · 30.0% short |
5/10 | 6.1/10 | 5.7/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd rising |
| 17 | EUR/CHF active |
0.9236 | Contrarian short | 71.7% long · 28.3% short |
5.4/10 | 5.7/10 | 5.6/10 | 5 minSteady1 hSteady |
| 18 | EUR/NZD active |
1.9828 | Contrarian long | 31.9% long · 68.1% short |
4.5/10 | 6/10 | 5.5/10 | 5 minCrowd easing1 hCrowd easing |
| 19 | GBP/CHF active |
1.1041 | Contrarian long | 30.5% long · 69.5% short |
4.9/10 | 5.2/10 | 5.1/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd easing |
| 20 | CHF/JPY active |
190.43 | Contrarian short | 67.4% long · 32.6% short |
4.4/10 | 5.2/10 | 4.9/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd rising |
| 21 | USD/CAD balanced |
1.3988 | Contrarian short | 50.2% long · 49.8% short |
0.1/10 | 7.4/10 | 4.8/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd rising |
| 22 | GBP/JPY active |
210.25 | Contrarian short | 65.4% long · 34.6% short |
3.9/10 | 5.2/10 | 4.7/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd rising |
| 23 | USD/CHF balanced |
0.8291 | Contrarian long | 43.2% long · 56.8% short |
1.7/10 | 6.1/10 | 4.6/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd rising |
| 24 | GBP/USD balanced |
1.3317 | Contrarian long | 46.8% long · 53.2% short |
0.8/10 | 6.6/10 | 4.6/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd easing |
| 25 | AUD/JPY balanced |
111.34 | Contrarian long | 43.9% long · 56.1% short |
1.5/10 | 5.9/10 | 4.4/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd easing |
| 26 | CAD/CHF balanced |
0.5928 | Contrarian short | 59.1% long · 40.9% short |
2.3/10 | 4.8/10 | 3.9/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd easing |
| 27 | USD/JPY balanced |
157.88 | Contrarian short | 52.5% long · 47.5% short |
0.6/10 | 5.7/10 | 3.9/10 | 5 minSteady1 hCrowd easing |
| 28 | CAD/JPY balanced |
112.88 | Contrarian short | 52.1% long · 47.9% short |
0.5/10 | 4/10 | 2.8/10 | 5 minCrowd rising1 hCrowd rising |
BEHAVIOURAL DIAGNOSTICTop opportunity detailsOpen this level for the full picture behind each leading pair: positioning trend, entry stress and price context.View 8 setups
NZD/CAD
91.0% of tracked positions are long. The crowd appears to be adding into an adverse move, consistent with averaging behaviour and rising margin pressure.
Same direction: crowd adding to a losing position, so squeeze fuel is building.
No liquidation confirmation. The dominant retail side is increasing, but the price move is not yet large enough to classify the squeeze path.
AUD/NZD
87.7% of tracked positions are short. Price and entry context point to pressure against the crowd, although aggregate data cannot locate margin-call thresholds.
Different directions right now: crowd growth and price pressure disagree.
No liquidation confirmation. No material joint change in crowd positioning and price was detected.
EUR/GBP
91.3% of tracked positions are long. Price and entry context point to pressure against the crowd, although aggregate data cannot locate margin-call thresholds.
Same direction: crowd adding to a losing position, so squeeze fuel is building.
No liquidation confirmation. The dominant retail side is increasing, but the price move is not yet large enough to classify the squeeze path.
EUR/AUD
87.0% of tracked positions are long. The crowd appears to be adding into an adverse move, consistent with averaging behaviour and rising margin pressure.
Same direction: crowd adding to a losing position, so squeeze fuel is building.
No liquidation confirmation. The dominant retail side is increasing, but the price move is not yet large enough to classify the squeeze path.
EUR/CAD
85.1% of tracked positions are long. The crowd appears to be adding into an adverse move, consistent with averaging behaviour and rising margin pressure.
Same direction: crowd adding to a losing position, so squeeze fuel is building.
No liquidation confirmation. The dominant retail side is increasing, but the price move is not yet large enough to classify the squeeze path.
EUR/USD
79.2% of tracked positions are long. Price and entry context point to pressure against the crowd, although aggregate data cannot locate margin-call thresholds.
Same direction: crowd adding to a losing position, so squeeze fuel is building.
No liquidation confirmation. The dominant retail side is increasing, but the price move is not yet large enough to classify the squeeze path.
GBP/NZD
77.8% of tracked positions are short. The crowd appears to be adding into an adverse move, consistent with averaging behaviour and rising margin pressure.
Same direction: crowd adding to a losing position, so squeeze fuel is building.
No liquidation confirmation. The dominant retail side is increasing, but the price move is not yet large enough to classify the squeeze path.
GBP/AUD
83.4% of tracked positions are long. The crowd appears to be adding into an adverse move, consistent with averaging behaviour and rising margin pressure.
Same direction: crowd adding to a losing position, so squeeze fuel is building.
No liquidation confirmation. The dominant retail side is increasing, but the price move is not yet large enough to classify the squeeze path.
FULL MARKET SNAPSHOTPositioning and price detailsUnderlying positioning, average trade size, entries and spot prices for the complete universe.View all 28 pairs
| Pair | Long | Short | Positions | Lots | Avg long size | Avg short size | Average long | Average short | Spot | Imbalance | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | 22.6% | 77.4% | 17,884 | 3,850 | 0.183 | 0.225 | 0.9836 | 0.9527 | 0.9864 | 6.9/10 | 6.1/10 |
| AUD/CHF | 23.5% | 76.5% | 2,334 | 312 | 0.073 | 0.152 | 0.5887 | 0.5677 | 0.5847 | 6.6/10 | 5.6/10 |
| AUD/JPY | 43.9% | 56.1% | 2,176 | 504.7 | 0.286 | 0.189 | 111.85 | 105.69 | 111.34 | 1.5/10 | 5.9/10 |
| AUD/NZD | 12.3% | 87.7% | 12,349 | 3,444.3 | 0.304 | 0.275 | 1.2331 | 1.1871 | 1.2552 | 9.4/10 | 7.6/10 |
| AUD/USD | 28.9% | 71.1% | 7,921 | 2,212.5 | 0.267 | 0.284 | 0.7076 | 0.6855 | 0.7053 | 5.3/10 | 7.7/10 |
| CAD/CHF | 59.1% | 40.9% | 4,522 | 631.7 | 0.116 | 0.174 | 0.6239 | 0.5867 | 0.5928 | 2.3/10 | 4.8/10 |
| CAD/JPY | 52.1% | 47.9% | 1,375 | 331.9 | 0.324 | 0.152 | 113.35 | 109.29 | 112.88 | 0.5/10 | 4/10 |
| CHF/JPY | 67.4% | 32.6% | 2,073 | 388 | 0.189 | 0.183 | 193.34 | 180.39 | 190.43 | 4.4/10 | 5.2/10 |
| EUR/AUD | 87.0% | 13.0% | 4,173 | 1,254.2 | 0.326 | 0.133 | 1.6225 | 1.5831 | 1.5796 | 9.3/10 | 6.8/10 |
| EUR/CAD | 85.1% | 14.9% | 4,630 | 1,107.1 | 0.261 | 0.114 | 1.5880 | 1.5336 | 1.5581 | 8.8/10 | 7/10 |
| EUR/CHF | 71.7% | 28.3% | 3,765 | 543.8 | 0.148 | 0.136 | 0.9396 | 0.9242 | 0.9236 | 5.4/10 | 5.7/10 |
| EUR/GBP | 91.3% | 8.7% | 11,994 | 3,476.1 | 0.303 | 0.147 | 0.8472 | 0.8403 | 0.8366 | 10/10 | 6.7/10 |
| EUR/JPY | 69.8% | 30.2% | 3,968 | 1,351.4 | 0.289 | 0.460 | 179.23 | 168.94 | 175.89 | 4.9/10 | 6.5/10 |
| EUR/NZD | 31.9% | 68.1% | 2,108 | 318.2 | 0.115 | 0.168 | 2.0000 | 1.8827 | 1.9828 | 4.5/10 | 6/10 |
| EUR/USD | 79.2% | 20.8% | 39,732 | 19,454.9 | 0.535 | 0.315 | 1.1397 | 1.0996 | 1.1141 | 7.3/10 | 7/10 |
| GBP/AUD | 83.4% | 16.6% | 2,777 | 391.1 | 0.148 | 0.105 | 1.9334 | 1.8795 | 1.8882 | 8.4/10 | 6.1/10 |
| GBP/CAD | 77.6% | 22.4% | 2,941 | 340.9 | 0.110 | 0.136 | 1.8741 | 1.8468 | 1.8626 | 6.9/10 | 5.7/10 |
| GBP/CHF | 30.5% | 69.5% | 1,797 | 365.1 | 0.276 | 0.171 | 1.1195 | 1.0794 | 1.1041 | 4.9/10 | 5.2/10 |
| GBP/JPY | 65.4% | 34.6% | 2,698 | 659.8 | 0.238 | 0.257 | 212.05 | 204.18 | 210.25 | 3.9/10 | 5.2/10 |
| GBP/NZD | 22.2% | 77.8% | 2,877 | 312 | 0.062 | 0.122 | 2.3618 | 2.3207 | 2.3701 | 7/10 | 7/10 |
| GBP/USD | 46.8% | 53.2% | 20,192 | 5,244.1 | 0.240 | 0.277 | 1.3457 | 1.3124 | 1.3317 | 0.8/10 | 6.6/10 |
| NZD/CAD | 91.0% | 9.0% | 7,511 | 1,805 | 0.247 | 0.175 | 0.7997 | 0.8027 | 0.7859 | 10/10 | 7.3/10 |
| NZD/CHF | 70.0% | 30.0% | 2,978 | 391.2 | 0.150 | 0.088 | 0.4918 | 0.4653 | 0.4658 | 5/10 | 6.1/10 |
| NZD/JPY | 78.3% | 21.7% | 1,632 | 522.1 | 0.360 | 0.176 | 91.33 | 87.17 | 88.71 | 7.1/10 | 5.7/10 |
| NZD/USD | 80.6% | 19.4% | 4,306 | 1,238.8 | 0.302 | 0.229 | 0.5785 | 0.5677 | 0.5619 | 7.6/10 | 6.2/10 |
| USD/CAD | 50.2% | 49.8% | 7,927 | 1,777.3 | 0.217 | 0.231 | 1.4096 | 1.3921 | 1.3988 | 0.1/10 | 7.4/10 |
| USD/CHF | 43.2% | 56.8% | 5,338 | 1,415.5 | 0.256 | 0.273 | 0.8488 | 0.8177 | 0.8291 | 1.7/10 | 6.1/10 |
| USD/JPY | 52.5% | 47.5% | 6,531 | 1,206 | 0.178 | 0.192 | 159.10 | 155.35 | 157.88 | 0.6/10 | 5.7/10 |
HOW TO READ THISMethodology and limitationsThe analytical framework, scenario logic and data caveats behind the headline edges.View methodology
Retail imbalance
The long and short split shows where retail positioning is concentrated. A wider split signals a more crowded market.
Retail behaviour
Retail traders may hold or add through adverse trends. Continuation can end in forced exits and a later reversal. An earlier reversal can prompt loss-minimising exits that slow the move.
Dynamic confirmation
Historical share, absolute positions, lots and spot are read jointly. A price sweep alone is not liquidation. Inventory reduction requires both positions and lots to contract against an adverse move.
Currency view
Signals recurring across several pairs help identify broader currency imbalances. Isolated readings receive less emphasis than themes visible across multiple crosses.